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#prediction

16 posts10 participants1 post today
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mrktws news

+26% in a week 📈 Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat?
manifold.markets/bens/will-any #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat?38% chance. See this article for context: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans breach described by Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic, is fired or resigns by the end of June for this reason. Resolves YES if someone is fired and it's not explicitly stated why, or an excuse is given that is different than this one, but the consensus of trustworthy/media sources are at least fairly confident that it is because of this breach. Must happen by the end of June. Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update on Resolution Criteria: Resignations linked to perjury: A resignation that occurs because an individual perjures themselves in relation to the breach described in the article will count. Connection to the breach is required: The resignation must clearly be tied to the war plans breach as discussed, even if the stated reason (perjury) is not the exact wording used in the market description.
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-20% in a day 📉 Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?
manifold.markets/Bayesian/will #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?18% chance. Background On December 8th, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in New York City. Luigi Mangione has been identified as a "strong person of interest" and is currently in custody for questioning in connection with the murder. As of now, he has not been charged with any crime. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if: Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2026. Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026. The market will resolve NO if: Mangione is acquitted of murder charges No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2026 Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter) Mangione is never formally charged with murder Mangione dies before a conviction is reached
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+34% in a day 📈 What will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term? Garcia returns to the US
manifold.markets/AlexanderTheG #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWhat will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term?https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/us/politics/us-maryland-man-deportation-delay.html Update 2025-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Return Method Clarification: If Garcia returns to the US, whether by his own efforts, by being transported by El Salvador or the US, the outcome is resolved YES. The method of return (self-initiated or government-assisted) does not affect the resolution. It does not matter if he is taken to a US prison or to his family upon his return. Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Trump’s Term End: The term is considered over when Trump leaves office, whether by death, resignation, or other means. This clarification determines the period during which the market is active. Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification regarding death outcome: If Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is dead, the outcome is resolved based solely on that condition. The return of his body to the US will not alter the outcome.
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mrktws news

+22% in a week 📈 Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Chris Murphy
manifold.markets/NcyRocks/who- #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWho will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open. Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are: The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls. If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page". When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO. See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre
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+48% in a week 📈 What will happen during the second run of Claude Plays Pokemon? Claude has a full six-pokemon belt at the moment Erika is challenged
manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWhat will happen during the second run of Claude Plays Pokemon?https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game. I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother. Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on valid run criteria: Only the instance where Claude goes from Mt. Moon to Cerulean City counts as a valid run. A subsequent entry into Mt. Moon that leads him to exit through the entrance and wander back to Viridian City does not count. In cases where the second attempt deviates from the stated route, the option will resolve NO.
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+20% in a day 📈 Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025?
manifold.markets/hima999/will- #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldWill Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025?32% chance. This market resolves YES if Barack and Michelle Obama publicly announce a separation or divorce through official channels (their social media, press statements, or legal filings) in 2025. Resolution will be based on major news outlet coverage and official statements. Sources for resolution: Official Obama social media accounts Major news outlets like CNN, Reuters, AP Court records if publicly available Also Michelle did not accompany Barack to Jimmy Carter’s funeral or Trump’s inauguration. Articles have been written speculating of an affair Mr. Obama may be having. https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-news-barack-obama-divorce-michelle-barack-obama-dating-jennifer-aniston-rumours-surface-on-social-media-amid-his-divorce-buzz-with-michelle/amp_articleshow/117397737.cms https://vt.tiktok.com/ZS63utgCH/
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💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Interpretable Physics-Informed Graph Neural Networks For Flood Forecasting
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doi.org/10.1111/mice.13484 <-- shared paper
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github.com/MehdiTaghizadehUVa/ <-- shared GitHub repository
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #FloodForecasting #GraphNeuralNetworks #PhysicsInformedAI #Hydrology #ClimateResilience #ScientificMachineLearning #CivilEngineering #HydroGraphNet #PhyiscsNeMo #hydrology #water #flood #flooding #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #climatechange #model #modeling #machinelearning #AI #extremeweather #prediction #forecasting #planning #humanimpacts #loss #lossoflife #publicsafety #cost #economics #infrastructure #risk #hazard #disaster #mitigation #preparedness #naturaldisaster #HydroGraphNet #floodforecasting #dynamics #remotesensing #earthobservation

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+30% in a day 📈 Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on April 20th?
manifold.markets/Jubs/trump-ap #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldTrump approval rating 45.0% or higher on April 20th?61% chance. Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated April 20th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin To account for any lag in aggregation or tracker updating, the data will be checked three days later on April 23rd, 2025. In the event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
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+50% in a week 📈 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025? Yemen
manifold.markets/BlueDragon/-i #prediction #Manifold

Manifold📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025?Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker: https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en It’s impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month. Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large. Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
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+62% in a day 📈 Daily Sports ⬇️ Ranked Coinflips ~24/7 MLB Baseball NBA Basketball NHL ATP WTA Tennis IPL Cricket Premier League Soccer 4/13 16:11 MLB Chicago Cubs WIN @ Los Angeles Dodgers
manifold.markets/Yuna/daily-sp #prediction #Manifold

ManifoldDaily Sports ⬇️ Ranked Coinflips ~24/7 MLB Baseball NBA Basketball NHL ATP WTA Tennis IPL Cricket Premier League SoccerFor now, I won't place live API taking orders on this. ⚽ Unless otherwise noted, soccer resolves based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Aggregate score with a previous match, extra time, and penalty shootouts are ignored. 🕐 Times are PST (Los Angeles) but in 24h format to always have the next event on top. Especially Tennis times are often tentative though. 🪙 I'll try to leave up large limit orders up sometimes up to 5 minutes before the game starts. 🤖 Bots are welcome! 👩‍⚖ Mods: Feel free to resolve as soon as the result is clear. No need to wait for me. 🚥 Traders: To speed up resolution ping me with a result screenshot or link. 🦉 If you're only interested in one sport or team, just enter it in the search field like 'NBA' and boom! you have an NBA market. Abbreviations EPL – English Premier League (Soccer) NBA – National Basketball Association NCAAB – NCAA Basketball NFL – National Football League (American Football) NHL – National Hockey League (Ice Hockey) MLBP – MLB Preseason (Baseball) MLB – Major League Baseball IPL – Indian Premier League (Cricket) ODI – One Day International (Cricket) UFC – Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) 6N – Six Nations (Rugby Union) FAC – FA Cup (Soccer) BL – Bundesliga (Soccer - Germany) LL – La Liga (Soccer - Spain) UCL – UEFA Champions League (Soccer) UEL – UEFA Europa League (Soccer) UNL – UEFA Nations League (Soccer) MLS – Major League Soccer ATP – Men's Tennis WTA – Women's Tennis AAL – Australian A-League (Soccer) JJL – Japanese J-League (Soccer) AFL – Aussie Rules Football League Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tie Resolution In any match that ends in a tie, the outcome is considered a no because the first-named team did not win.
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