“[B]aşkasının rotasında yürümek nasıl olur? O kişi için bu yolun nasıl bir anlamı olduğunu bilerek, yolla kurduğu ilişkinin zamanına giderek.”
—Begüm Sönmez’den Tarihi Bıçakçı Han’da gerçekleştirilen Belki de Geçenler İçin sergisi üzerine:
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Berk Özalp ve Hasan Cem Çal tarafından hazırlanan Wax Podcast’in yeni bölümünde konu, Alfonso Cuarón’un 2006 yapımı kültleşmiş filmi Children of Men. İnsan soyunun tükenmeye yüz tuttuğu gelecekteki bir zaman aralığında umudu söz konusu eden bir film.
https://manifold.press/children-of-men
#manifold #wax #podcast #ManifoldPress
#HasanCemÇal #BerkÖzalp
ManifoldChildren of MenAlfonso Cuarón’un 2006 yapımı kültleşmiş filmi Children of Men, insan soyunun tükenişe yüz tuttuğu bir dünyada umut etmenin anlamına dair bir tefekkür sunan, karanlık ile aydınlığı iç içe geçiren bir ahir zaman filmi.
+26% in a week 
Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat?
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-anyone-be-fired-or-resign-for?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWill anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat?38% chance. See this article for context:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/
Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans breach described by Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic, is fired or resigns by the end of June for this reason.
Resolves YES if someone is fired and it's not explicitly stated why, or an excuse is given that is different than this one, but the consensus of trustworthy/media sources are at least fairly confident that it is because of this breach.
Must happen by the end of June.
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update on Resolution Criteria:
Resignations linked to perjury: A resignation that occurs because an individual perjures themselves in relation to the breach described in the article will count.
Connection to the breach is required: The resignation must clearly be tied to the war plans breach as discussed, even if the stated reason (perjury) is not the exact wording used in the market description.
'Manifold Fitting under Unbounded Noise', by Zhigang Yao, Yuqing Xia.
http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/21-0039.html
#manifold #smoothness #estimation
-80% in a day 
Six months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on? Other
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/a-year-after-jimmy-carter-dies-who?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldSix months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on?Determined by combination of data and/or poll if need be when the time comes
+61% in a week Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
https://manifold.markets/cash/will-pope-francis-cease-to-be-pope-623916036ab8?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWill Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?100.0% chance. This question resolves YES if Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) ceases to be pope of the Roman Catholic Church for any reason before the end of 2025.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-pope-francis-cease-to-be-pope)
-69% in a week Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-pope-francis-be-alive-through?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWill Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?0.1% chance.
“[G]elecekte klinik aşamalarda kullanılan, hatta onaylanmış yapay zekâ destekli ilaçlara tanıklık edeceğiz.” —Ömer Sümer’den ilaç geliştirme sürecinde yapay zekânın yeri üzerine:
Manifoldİlaç Geliştirmede Yapay ZekâYapay zekâ ilaç geliştirme süreçlerini gerçekten hızlandırıyor mu yoksa bu konuda yapılan çalışmalar bir hype’tan mı ibaret? İlaç geliştirme ve hastalık tedavisinde yapay zekâ kayda değer bir etki ve fark yaratabilecek mi?
-20% in a day Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWill Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?18% chance. Background
On December 8th, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in New York City. Luigi Mangione has been identified as a "strong person of interest" and is currently in custody for questioning in connection with the murder. As of now, he has not been charged with any crime.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if:
Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2026.
Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026.
The market will resolve NO if:
Mangione is acquitted of murder charges
No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2026
Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter)
Mangione is never formally charged with murder
Mangione dies before a conviction is reached
“Biz İstanbul’u hep fatihlerden, seyyahlardan, yazarlardan, Batılılardan dinledik.” —Eren Can Altay ve Merve Nur Ocaklı’dan, Rumeysa Boz’la İstanbul üzerine bir söyleşi:
Bu ay Ateş Alpar’ın fotoğraflarını kadrajladık:
https://manifold.press/kadraj-ates-alpar-tas-kabuk-sessiz
ManifoldTAŞ KABUK SESSİZBu ay Ateş Alpar’ın fotoğraflarını kadrajladık.
+34% in a day What will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term? Garcia returns to the US
https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-sag?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWhat will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term?https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/us/politics/us-maryland-man-deportation-delay.html
Update 2025-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Return Method Clarification:
If Garcia returns to the US, whether by his own efforts, by being transported by El Salvador or the US, the outcome is resolved YES.
The method of return (self-initiated or government-assisted) does not affect the resolution.
It does not matter if he is taken to a US prison or to his family upon his return.
Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Trump’s Term End:
The term is considered over when Trump leaves office, whether by death, resignation, or other means.
This clarification determines the period during which the market is active.
Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification regarding death outcome:
If Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is dead, the outcome is resolved based solely on that condition.
The return of his body to the US will not alter the outcome.
-41% in a day What will be true of o3? Context window >=500k tokens
https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/what-will-be-true-of-o3?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWhat will be true of o3?
+22% in a week Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Chris Murphy
https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-pre?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWho will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:
The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".
When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.
See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre
-22% in a day Who will be elected president in 2028? Other
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWho will be elected president in 2028?Getting in early
+48% in a week What will happen during the second run of Claude Plays Pokemon? Claude has a full six-pokemon belt at the moment Erika is challenged
https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWhat will happen during the second run of Claude Plays Pokemon?https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon
Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.
I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.
Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on valid run criteria:
Only the instance where Claude goes from Mt. Moon to Cerulean City counts as a valid run.
A subsequent entry into Mt. Moon that leads him to exit through the entrance and wander back to Viridian City does not count.
In cases where the second attempt deviates from the stated route, the option will resolve NO.
Hiç kimse mutlak iyi veya kötü değil. Olaylar ilerledikçe dünyalar, geçmişler ve amaçlar birbirine giriyor ve içinden çıkılmaz bir hâle geliyor. Epey punk bir çizgi roman! Her an her şey olabiliyor. Herkes ayrı bir cins. Hayashida’nın çizim üslubu da anlatıya paralel. —Çağıl Ömerbaş’tan #Dorohedoro üzerine:
https://manifold.press/dorohedoro
ManifoldDorohedoroHiç kimse mutlak iyi veya kötü değil. Olaylar ilerledikçe dünyalar, geçmişler ve amaçlar birbirine giriyor ve içinden çıkılmaz bir hâle geliyor. Epey punk bir çizgi roman! Her an her şey olabiliyor. Herkes ayrı bir cins. Hayashida’nın çizim üslubu da anlatıya paralel.
+20% in a day Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025?
https://manifold.markets/hima999/will-michelle-and-barack-obama-sepa?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWill Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce in 2025?32% chance. This market resolves YES if Barack and Michelle Obama publicly announce a separation or divorce through official channels (their social media, press statements, or legal filings) in 2025. Resolution will be based on major news outlet coverage and official statements.
Sources for resolution:
Official Obama social media accounts
Major news outlets like CNN, Reuters, AP
Court records if publicly available
Also Michelle did not accompany Barack to Jimmy Carter’s funeral or Trump’s inauguration.
Articles have been written speculating of an affair Mr. Obama may be having.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-news-barack-obama-divorce-michelle-barack-obama-dating-jennifer-aniston-rumours-surface-on-social-media-amid-his-divorce-buzz-with-michelle/amp_articleshow/117397737.cms
https://vt.tiktok.com/ZS63utgCH/
+30% in a day Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on April 20th?
https://manifold.markets/Jubs/trump-approval-rating-450-or-higher-dOIqssElRy?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldTrump approval rating 45.0% or higher on April 20th?61% chance. Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated April 20th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
To account for any lag in aggregation or tracker updating, the data will be checked three days later on April 23rd, 2025.
In the event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating