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What will happen within Donald Trump's first 100 days? [Add Answers] BTC falls below $70,000
https://manifold.markets/AaronSimansky/what-will-happen-within-donald-trum?r=bWFya3R3c2U #prediction #Manifold
ManifoldWhat will happen within Donald Trump's first 100 days? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read rules)What will happen before May 1, 2025? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.
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Read below:
Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
I will issue a full analysis of my reasoning for resolving a market within 24 hours after I resolve it. If you are dissatisfied with a resolution, please wait for the full analysis, and then leave a comment or message me before leaving a bad review of my resolution.
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On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
Answers must have clear criteria for resolving
No meta markets will be allowed (i.e. more than 10 answers resolved to "yes")
I will remain the decision-maker on the resolution of all markets. Any statement to the contrary in a market title will be removed.
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A
I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.
If the criteria for an answer are satisfied before Donald Trump takes office that answer will not resolve unless it is impossible for that answer to resolve yes or no after Trump takes office in which case that answer will resolve N/A.
Please note: that given the somewhat ambiguous of some markets, I will not trade on this market.
Update 2025-09-01 (PST): - YES if:
Section 3 or 4 of the 25th Amendment is invoked
Death of the President
Resignation of the President
Removal from office (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definitions
Eliminate Mandates: For this market, "eliminate mandates" means that Trump signs an executive order, law, or any other legally binding action that effectively ends federal vaccine mandates within the specified timeframe.
The action must be documented in official government releases (e.g., executive orders, laws passed and signed, federal agency directives).
State-level vaccine mandate changes do not count unless directly tied to federal action.
Statements, promises, or intentions without binding action do not qualify.
Vaccine Mandates: Rules or regulations that require individuals or groups to receive any vaccines to participate in activities, employment, or access certain public services, as instituted by federal law or regulation. To be clear, this requires the removal of any enforceable requirements compelling individuals to receive vaccinations, requiring vaccination to receive government benefits or employment, or penalizing non-compliance.
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - A federal death row inmate is executed by the federal government. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria for Cease-Fire within Trump's First 100 Days:
Cease-fire Date: The date the cease-fire is entered into is the only date that matters.
14-Day Period: If a cease-fire is entered into before the first 100 days, but the required 14-day period for the cease-fire not to be breached overlaps into the first 100 days, the market will not necessarily resolve to "Yes".
Multiple Cease-fires: Another cease-fire agreement entered into within Trump's first 100 days, including one that builds on prior agreements, will count.
Hostilities: Continuing hostilities are not necessary for a cease-fire to count.
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment Resolution:
The date used will be the date the House of Representatives adopts a resolution impeaching Donald J. Trump.
The market will not resolve until it is clear the resolution won't be rescinded, which is shown by either a motion to reconsider being laid on the table or the signing of the resolution.
If a resolution of impeachment and articles of impeachment are adopted separately, the time of the impeachment resolution's adoption will control.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria for 'Executive order ejecting transgender people serving in the military':
Ejectment of transgender individuals from the armed forces.
Requirement that transgender individuals serve under their sex assigned at birth rather than their gender identity.
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The market will resolve to Yes if the list of cabinet officials is updated to include a new position within the first 100 days of Trump's time in office.
Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The market resolves Yes if the Trump administration explicitly refuses to comply with a binding court order issued by a U.S. federal or state court.
Definition of "Ignore a Court Order":
Defying an injunction: Continuing an action that a court has ordered to stop or not doing what the court ordered.
Refusing to enforce a ruling: Not acting on a mandate requiring specific action.
Publicly declaring noncompliance: Making a public statement that the administration will not comply with a specific court order.
Exclusions:
Filing an appeal or seeking a stay without simultaneously ignoring the order does not count.
Delays in compliance due to bureaucratic processes do not count unless they are willful and explicit.
Statements criticizing the court order without actual noncompliance do not count.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Tariffs Resolution Clarification
General Tariffs: Tariffs applied to all countries generally will not count, even if there are exceptions for a few specific countries.
Specific Tariffs: Only tariffs that explicitly name Panama (though not necessarily exclusively) will count.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Crash Counting:
If a single incident involves multiple jets (for example, one jet colliding with another while landing), it should be counted as a single crash.
Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Official resolution criteria for jet crashes:
The market resolves YES if three or more jet crashes occur in the United States in the first 100 days of Trump’s administration.
Each incident is counted as one crash, in keeping with the natural use of the term.
Jet crashes must meet FAA guidelines and industry standards.
Incidents qualifying as jet crashes include:
2025 Potomac River mid-air collision
Med Jets Flight 056
Learjet 35A crash at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona
Note that non-jet crashes (e.g., Bering Air Flight 445) do not count.
Update 2025-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Pope Francis Definition Update
Sede Vacante Trigger: Pope Francis will no longer be considered Pope once the Holy See (Diocese of Rome) enters a period of sede vacante.
Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Papal Definition:
Habemus papam Announcement: A person is considered to have been made pope at the moment the Habemus papam announcement is made.
Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Clarification on LMSYS Leaderboard Measurement:
Only the result for the number one on the LMSYS leaderboard at day 100 (Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 12:00:00 noon ET) will be considered.
Outcomes from any time before this specified moment will not be used in resolution.
Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): N/A Condition for Monthly Poll
If the creator cannot locate this month's Manifold poll by the end of the day, the question will resolve to N/A.
Update 2025-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Press pool removal: A reporter’s pass is considered revoked only if they are fully removed from the press pool.
Partial removal does not count: Restrictions such as limited access (e.g., being barred from entering the Oval Office) are insufficient.
AP Note: The AP has not been fully removed from the press pool and therefore does not qualify.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bitcoin Reserve Criteria Update
Trigger: The U.S. government holding any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point during Trump’s first 100 days qualifies.
Exclusion: Confiscation of Bitcoin does not count as holding a reserve.
Intent: Even if the Bitcoin was obtained through criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings, if the clear intent is to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve as confirmed by the White House announcement and fact sheet, it qualifies for a 'Yes' resolution.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Duration: The cessation of military aid does not need to be permanent, but it must last for at least 30 days.
Official Statement: There must be an official statement confirming the cessation of military aid.
Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): EU Tariff Clarification
Denmark is considered part of the EU.
Tariffs placed on the EU (and therefore on all its member states) are treated as general tariffs and do not qualify as specific tariffs for resolving the market as Yes.
