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#lpc
@Snowshadow Harper is more out of touch than I thought if he thinks the #LPC is #FarLeft #cdnpoli
Reviewer's quotes misrepresented as passage from Mark Carney's book
Liberal Platform pledges to use AI to "reduce costs" in Public Service. This will 100% be used to Eliminate good unionized Public Service jobs.
National #Elxn45 #CanPoli polls update!
I drew ‘trend lines” following the bottom for each party.
Definitely a break happened around April 2-4.
Liberal and Conservative party numbers shifted together.
The #LPC surge stopped and kind of reset to a lower, very stable or slightly upward movement.
The #CPC halted their decline and have slowly recovered.
The #NDP and #Bloc both saw low, but stable, numbers move to a slight decline.
In all though, VERY stable numbers!
#CdnPoli
Goddamn it, the #LPC makes it hard for me to hold my nose sometimes...
#canpoli
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/14/canada-liberals-stop-the-steal-buttons
End of the 3rd work-week of the campaign and the last before advance voting starts!
(You can go here for info on voting before election day!
https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=faq&document=faqvot&lang=e#vot2a)
Projections and poills are pretty static but there are some small moves.
338 project the Liberals at 196 seats (a majority), CPC at 120, Bloc at 17, NDP at 8, and -- for the first time -- the Greens holding their 2 seats.
As for actual polls below, the national polls are very static. I'm starting to wonder if there is a heartbeat in the people taking these polls. lol.
The Quebec poll is a little more interesting. The Liberals have definitely come down from on-high but remain with a giant lead in opinion which is likely the biggest reason they are also likely to win a majority.
Canada: https://338canada.com/polls.htm
Quebec: https://338canada.com/polls-qc.htm
#CanPoli #Poll #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #LPC #CPC #Bloc #NDP #GPC
Also let’s be honest what crowd size is really about….
The CBC did a headcount of Liberal and Conservative rallies and found (SURPRISE) both were grossly overestimating the # of people actually there.
Both gave numbers that were, objectively, “not possible”. 
The #CPC mocked “crowd scientists” (because of course they did.) 15,000? More like 1700. 
And the #LPC told on themselves when they said they “maxed out” spaces. The max capacity was less than how many they claimed attended. 
Worth the 
: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/liberal-conservative-crowd-size-investigation-1.7507222
Asked to clarify if he sees genocide in Gaza, Carney says he 'didn't hear that word'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-clarifies-genocide-remarks-1.7506027
National and Quebec polls March 23 (start of #elxn45) to April 7.
I've changed the time series to only be since the Election was called on March 23 so we can see how things have changed... or not.
National: All parties remaining near where they have been since campaign start. Will anything push these numbers?
Quebec: Pretty much the same but the one thing you can say for sure is the Liberals have come off their very high highs of 50% and are now back down to Earth, but there is still a significant lead over the Bloc and CPC.
The NDP bumps around in the doldrums under 10%. The Green and PPC vote are nearly irrelevant.
These are reported at 338canada.com
They are the raw poll numbers, not seat projections.
National polls are only those rated "A" by 338canada.
Quebec are all polls.
Polls up to April 6 as reported by 338 (these are the poll numbers as reported, not projections)
I'm including both the National and Quebec numbers because there is some interesting movement in the Bloc numbers nationally downward, but it is not reflected in the Quebec numbers themselves. It seems that half Quebec polls have the Bloc polling around 20% and the other around 30%. A rather huge difference.
However, there does seem to be a decline in Liberal support in Quebec over the past week.
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Polls #LPC #Bloc #NDP #CPC #GPC
The Conservatives have dropped below the 37% threshold in the CBC Poll Tracker for the first time in nearly two years.
#MarkCarney did that!
#ElbowsUp #Canada 
#CanadaStrong #Liberals #LPC #BuildingCanadaStrong #Never51 #CanadaIsNotForSale
I had to look a little more into the Quebec specific polls to see if there were any trends there, so I recreated the same graph with Quebec polls.
It is hard to make out from the very noisy Bloc and CPC numbers but the Bloc did go below 20%. These are Liaison provincial polls which appear to be consistently the lowest for the Bloc.
There doesn't really seem to be any discernible trend for the Bloc or CPC. Both are fluctuating wildly between pollsters. But the Liberal and the NDP numbers are showing a decline and slight upward trend respectively.
I'll post these Quebec numbers with the national numbers tomorrow and going forward just to keep an eye on it.
Is someting happening in Quebec?!
The Bloc have broken below the 5% (national poll) barrier twice in the latest two days of polling, which is for April 4th and 5th.
Mainstreet polls, 4% on the 4th, then 3% on the 5th.
There are also Liaison “B" grade (not included on graph) polling that pegged them at 4% in their four most recent pollings since April 2nd.
LPC/CPC still within usual bounds. NDP steady.
Looking at the latest polls on this the eve of the 3rd week… everyone is still in their band that they've been in since March 24.
But I do notice the Bloc has hit a new low of 4%.
A sign of a subtle shift in seat-rich Quebec?
Note, the graph below only shows the “A rated" national polls as listed at 338canada.com.
LPC: continuing in their band, but on a short downward.
CPC: continuing in their band, but on a short upward.
NDP: fairly stable around 8%
GPC/PPC: wallowing under 5%
https://338canada.com/polls.htm
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Bloc #NDP #LPC #CPC #GPC
