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#competence

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A quotation from William Feather

An education isn’t how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It’s being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don’t. It’s knowing where to go to find out what you need to know, and it’s knowing how to use the information once you get it.

William Feather (1889-1981) American publisher, author
(Attributed)

Sourcing, notes: wist.info/feather-william/1479…

Replied to cob

-> biais égocentrique : "la chance n'est que l'interprétation que donne le connard aux probabilités." -> effet Dunning-Kruger.

"si la personne incompétente tend à surestimer son niveau de compétence, elle ne parvient pas non plus à reconnaître la #compétence chez ceux qui la possèdent."

-> biais-cognitif.com/biais/effet
-> cadremploi.fr/editorial/consei
-> solutions.lesechos.fr/equipe-m

The study, grounded in #self-determination theory, suggests that the key to this effect lies in #autonomy & #competence - feeling free & capable in #nature. 🏞🌊
However, more skilled swimmers in riskier locations sometimes reported higher #anxiety, pushing them into situations that challenge their comfort zones.⚠️These findings highlight the need for safe #access to high-quality open-water sites ❗

Many administrations evolve in a kind of tug of war between the #activists who demand attention to their pet causes and the political #realists who grab the candidate’s arm and tap the sign that reads, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

And then, every few years, the majority steps back in,
determines whether politicians have taken care of prices, crime and peace, and then ruthlessly punishes failure
— regardless of whether the activists got what they wanted, and even if they might agree with the activists’ concerns.

⭐️With Trump, the dynamic is different.
He’s so consumed with his grievances and his base’s grievances that rather than there being a tug of war between activists and pragmatists for the politician’s attention,
⚠️the activists and the politician are both aligned against the pragmatists.

That was the clear direction of Trump’s first term.
At first he surrounded himself with serious people.
Think of the contrast, for example, between Jim #Mattis as secretary of defense and Pete #Hegseth,
or between Alex #Azar, the secretary of health and human services for most of Trump’s first term, and an anti-vax conspiracy theorist like Robert F. #Kennedy Jr.

But the serious people told him no. They tried to block his worst instincts.
So they were purged.

💥Throughout the campaign, Trump ran with two messages.
🔸On the airwaves, he convinced millions of Americans that they were electing the Trump of January 2019, when inflation was low, and the border was under reasonable control.
🔸At his rallies, he told MAGA that it was electing the Trump of January 2021, the man unleashed from establishment control and hellbent on burning it all down.

➡️But here is his fundamental problem:
The desires of his heart and the grievances of his base are ultimately incompatible with the demands of the majority,
🔥and the more he pursues his own priorities, the more he’ll revive his opposition.

❇️He’ll end his political career as an unpopular politician who ushered in a Democratic majority yet again.
The reason goes deeper than #ideology (many of his nominees are extremists)
or #scandal (Kennedy, Hegseth, and Matt Gaetz, each have their own histories of alleged sexual misconduct, for example).

Ultimately, it goes to #competence:
Can you do the job we ultimately hired you to do❓

nytimes.com/2024/11/17/opinion

The New York Times · Opinion | Donald Trump Is Already Starting to FailBy David French

#malcolmGladwell has another book, I guess trying to rescue his much-nitpicked #TippingPoint.

IDK if he's a net positive force in the world or not. As a #psychologist I've occasionally looked up the original #research he cites. He tends to portray findings in black-and-white terms, like "People do X in Y situation!" when, most often, I've found the research best supports something like "In some studies 12% of people did X in Y situation despite previous #models predicting it should only be 7%" or "The mean of the P group was 0.3 standard deviations higher than the mean of the Q group".

I see many of his grand arguments as built more or less on a house of cards. Or rather, built on a house of semi-firm jell-o that he treats as if it were solid bricks.

I'm not knocking (most of) the #behavioralScience he cites; Hell, I'm a behavioral scientist and I think this meta-field has a ton to offer. I just think it's important to keep #EffectSize and #PracticalSignificance built into any more complex theories or models that rely on the relevant research instead of assuming that #StatisticalSignificance means "Everything at 100%". I'm sure there's some concise way to say this.

Overall, I think he plays fast and loose with a lot of scientific facts, stacking them up as if they were all Absolutely Yes when they're actually Kinda Maybe or Probably Sort Of and I don't think the weight of the stack can be borne by the accumulated uncertainty and partial applicability indicated by the component research.

So I take everything he says with huge grains of salt and sometimes grimaces, even though I think sometimes he identifies really interesting perspectives or trends.

But is it overall good to have someone presenting behavioral research, heavily oversimplified to fit the author's pet theory? It gets behavioral science in the public eye. It helps many people with no connection to behavioral science understand the potential usefulness and perhaps scale of the fields. It also sets everyone--especially behavioral scientists--up for a fall. It's only a matter of time after each of his books before people who understand the research far better than he does show up to try to set the record straight, and then what has happened to public confidence in behavioral science?

Meh.