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#forecasting

0 posts0 participants0 posts today
Public
Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

#Scientists discover changes to the #polarvortex that are plunging parts of #US into deep freeze
When the polar vortex stretches, #NorthAmerica feels the chill. New research reveals some of the stratospheric patterns controlling these cold snaps
"Overwhelmingly, extreme cold and severe #winter #weather, heavy #snowstorms and deep #snow, are associated with these stretched events," co-author Judah Cohen, director of seasonal #forecasting at Atmospheric and Envir. Research
livescience.com/planet-earth/s

Live Science · Scientists discover changes to the polar vortex that are plunging parts of US into deep freezeBy Stephanie Pappas
Public
Tomasz Woźniak

This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀 The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value, but they include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease.

My forecasts are available at: forecasting-cash-rate.github.i

#cashrate#forecasting#rstats
Public
infoclio.ch

The latest issue of the journal ‘Geschichte und Informatik / Histoire et informatique’ focuses on «Perspectives on the History of Forecasting».

The contributions offer a rich overview of the history of forecasting from the interwar period to the present day, covering a geographical area stretching from the United States to the former USSR. #openaccess #history #forecasting #histodons

infoclio.ch/en/neue-ausgabe-vo

Continued thread
Public
Nonilex

What’s drawn less attention is how the *downsizing* appears to be part of an effort to #privatize the work of #FederalAgencies. In several instances, the companies poised to step into the void have deep ties to people tapped by #Trump to run #weather related agencies.

#Privatization would diminish a central role the #Federal govt has played in #forecasting since the 1800s, which…poses a particular harm for those facing financial strain who may not be able to afford #commercial weather data.

Continued thread
Public
Nonilex

The #billionaire also ran a financial firm, which he left in the control of his sons, that stands to benefit if #Trump’s admin follows through on a decade-long #Republican effort to #privatize govt #weather #forecasting.

Deadly #flooding in central #Texas has drawn a spotlight to #BudgetCuts & #MassLayoffs at the #NWS & the #NOAA, 2 agencies housed within the #Commerce Dept that provide the public w/ #free #climate & weather data that can be crucial during #NaturalDisasters.

#law#broligarchy
Public
Rami Krispin :unverified:

I had the pleasure of presenting this week at the @rladiesrome meetup about forecasting with linear regression. This workshop covered the following topics:
🔹Time series decomposition
🔹Correlation and seasonal analysis
🔹Modeling trend and seasonality
🔹Using piecewise regression to model change in trend
🔹Residuals analysis

The workshop recording is available online:
youtube.com/watch?v=lk3a3GQ7kc

YouTubeR-Ladies Rome (English) - Forecasting Time Series with Linear Regression: A Feature-Driven ApproachBy R-Ladies Rome
#RStats#DataScience#timeseries
Public
💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Hurricane Science Was Great While It Lasted
The U.S. is hacking away at support for state-of-the-art forecasting.
--
theatlantic.com/science/archiv <-- shared media article
--
ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/ <-- shared NOAA SSMIS page
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earthdata.nasa.gov/data/instru <-- shared NASA SSMIS home page
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #fedopendata #earthobservation #model #modeling #fedscience #fedservice #hurricane #imaging #SSMIS #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weather #climate #climatechange #extremeweather #NationalHurricaneCenter #stateoftheart #forecasting #hurricaneseason #risk #hazard #mitigation #planning #management #NWS #loss #cost #economics
@NOAA @nasa

Public
Miguel Afonso Caetano

"At first, I liked AI 2027 anyway. The authors are trying to call attention to a real problem: we are not sufficiently prepared for what happens when and if “superhuman intelligence” arrives, especially not if it is misaligned with humans. And you could worry about that even if you don’t expect machines to go rogue, since bad human actors could certainly use further advances in intelligence to cause mayhem, if those advances are left unchecked. They want to slow down the race dynamic in AI, and I can well understand why.

And even though I highly doubt AGI will arrive in three years, I can’t absolutely promise you it won’t happen in 10. We certainly aren’t prepared now, and if we don’t get moving, we won’t be prepared in 10, either.

But here’s the thing - projects like AI 2027 are probably having a paradoxical effect. They are written with the intention of slowing down an arms race to build a technology that we can’t control, but what they are actually doing is speeding up that very arms race, in two different ways."

garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-

Marcus on AI · The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?By Gary Marcus
#AI#GenerativeAI#AGI
Public
💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Advancing Compound Flood Modeling to Evaluate Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural Infrastructure
--
coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/a <-- shared technical article
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doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.20 <-- shared paper
--
#flood #flooding #literaturesearch #compilation #coast #coastal #coastalengineering #mitigation #planning #management #framework #model #modeling #infrastructure #natural #barrier #rainfall #precipitation #climatechange #river #discharge #stormsurge #sealevel #seallevelrise #waves #tides #compoundflooding #humanimpacts #communities #publicsafety #cost #loss #economics #fedscience #fedservice #hydrology #water #marine #ocean #hydraulic #hydrodynamic #biology #ecosystems #vegetation #sedimentation #erosion #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #regional #local #forecasting #preparation #enduser #usecase #publicwarnings #marsh #sawmp #mangrove
@NOAA | @NOAA Ocean | @NOAA Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

Public
O=C=O

Weather forecasting and climate modeling move closer together

However, current research questions, such as those concerning the regional impacts of anthropogenic #ClimateChange, require that the gap between #weather #forecasting and #climate modeling be gradually closed. This is made possible by modern #supercomputers, which can calculate longer time periods with high spatial resolution.

A team of researchers from the #MPI-M, the #DWD, and other partners has taken on this task and is bringing together what belongs together: the #ICON developments for numerical weather prediction and climate applications.

"Our project has benefited greatly from the fact that the components use the same model structure," says Wolfgang Müller, group leader at MPI-M and lead author of the recently published paper presenting first successes of the project.

Roland Potthast, head of the Department of Meteorological Analysis and Modeling at the DWD, highlights the societal relevance of the work: "The developments help us to take an integrated approach to weather and climate and to provide well-coordinated services ranging from high-resolution weather #forecasts to seasonal and decadal climate forecasts."

phys.org/news/2025-06-weather-

Phys.org · Weather forecasting and climate modeling move closer togetherBy Max Planck Society
#ClimateScience
Public
Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

#US #weather #forecasting is more crippled than previously thought as #hurricane season nears
Thirty National Weather Service (#NWS) offices are without a chief #meteorologist
Some of these offices issue forecasts for major population centers such as New York City, Houston and Cleveland. Several are prone to #hurricanes and #tornadoes.
cnn.com/2025/05/02/weather/nws

CNN · US weather forecasting is more crippled than previously known as hurricane season nearsBy Andrew Freedman
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