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#systemsdynamics

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trying really hard not to be annoyed by social media all the time, but i have to get this very specific thing of my chest before my head explodes:

#AI #IT #TECH #FLOSS types who read an article on #complexity in AI once & now come spamming on my feed about #AI when i am very specifically talking about #systemsdynamics in #geopolitics or #SystemsEcology:

in case u still haven't gotten the memo: the world does not evolve around humans, not around human creations and for sure not around you guys.

didn't want to share ugo anymore because he became sort of an antivaxx hippie*, but he is the only one talking about his as far as i can see.

and interestingly, right now, it has absolutely nothing to do with #energy, which is a thing ugo should have mentioned.

the generation 2 collapseologists have a lot to correct themsleves on right now.

*just so you have been warned.

#complexity #collapse #talkcollapse #systemsdynamics #senecacliff

senecaeffect.substack.com/p/th

The Seneca Effect · The Imp with a ChainsawBy Ugo Bardi
Continued thread

K-selected species have slower reproduction & longer generation times, their responses to changes in population size are delayed, which creates lower-amplitude, slower oscillations in their populations.

they are selected for by evolution regarding resource use, hence K-selected.

humans like other big mammals once were a K-selected species, even when elon musk is flying around with his jet having 3 million kids - we still are.

#overshoot
#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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#systemsdynamics-wise there are 2 different types of species:

r-selected species like small mammals have rapid reproduction & short generation times, so they respond quickly to environmental changes. they produce many offspring, so they face overshooting K often, leading to high-amplitude, rapid oscillations in their population stocks, especially when delayed responses are present.

they are selected for by reproduction rates, hence r-selected.

#overshoot
#systemsthinking
@systemsthinking

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for the sake of simplicity here is some jargon from biology that is used in the population dynamics context all the time:

the amount of possible individuals available resources of a certain environment can sustain is called carrying capacity or K.

the, temporary or not, uptick in population in the fluctuation caused by delayed balancing feedbacks is called #overshoot.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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however, there can be a delay between the time when the population reaches a relatively high density & the time when resources become limiting enough to significantly affect birth and death rates. this delay in the feedback mechanism can cause the population stock to temporarily "#overshoot" the amount of possible individuals available resources can sustain. that results in a temporary die-off and starts a boom-and-bust cycle of oscillations.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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so the population density begins to influence births: more crowded = fewer births, and deaths: more crowded = more deaths, due to competition for resources. there is a shift in dominance of the systems dynamics, the balancing feedback becomes dominant and the specie's stock begins declining. it does so until the environment finally can provide for an increase in births and decrease in deaths again.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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delays, system oscillation & #overshoot

(this is where the tea begins)

in population dynamics, negative feedbacks are responsible for regulating population's stock in response to resources availability. delays in that response can lead to oscillations in population stock over time. system oscillations are a characteristic of balancing feedbacks in which the information regulating the goal-seeking action is delayed.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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and because the economy has the same feedback structures as populations of living beings they behave the same way. in general it can be said that systems with the same or similar structures also behave similarly. so we can now look at a systems behavior over time, the measurements it's stocks, from that draw conclusions to it's internal structure and explore the dynamics of known systems to understand things about unknown systems.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

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so here is the things with these systems and dominance of feedbacks: they change in between their states all the time. these changes happen when the dominance of their feedbacks changes. with the population example it could be that food becomes more available which causes a spike in population and the reinforcing loop becoming dominant or a disease decimating a population leading to a decline when the balancing loop becomes dominant.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking