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Get ready British Columbia, the provincial election is on October 19, and it’s going to be a wild one.
If you only want to know who to vote for, you can skip to the end.
How We Got Here
British Columbia’s last election was in 2020, when the BC NDP won a strong majority government with 57 seats. The once mighty BC Liberals were reduced to 28 seats, and the Greens managed to hang on to 2. The BC Conservatives weren’t a factor, getting only 1.9% of the vote.
In 2022 there were a bunch of changes that set things in motion for the crazy election we’re having now.
- The BC Liberals picked Kevin Falcon as their new leader.
- John Rustad got kicked out of the BC Liberals for denying climate change.
- The NDP choose David Eby as their leader and our new Premier.
- Kevin Falcon rebranded the Liberals to BC United to reflect their centre-right ideology.
- John Rustad joined the BC Conservative Party and became their leader and only MLA.
At this point, we were headed for a classic Eby (NDP) vs Falcon (United formerly Liberal) showdown. But in an epic collapse (read more about it here), Kevin Falcon destroyed his own party just before the election started. A few weeks ago, he suspended the BC United campaign, leaving his candidates stranded without a party (apparently the leader has the sole power to sign nomination papers and when he refused the party wasn’t able to field any candidates).
The Parties
Now the election is a fight between the BC NDP (led by David Eby) and the BC Conservatives (led by John Rustad), and the outcome is a coin toss (if the polls can be trusted).
BC NDP – In power since 2017, the NDP are traditionally the party of workers with a strong focus on health care and education. They’re probably best known for their moves to make BC more affordable – getting rid of MSP premiums, lowering ICBC car insurance rates, and bringing in $10/day daycare.
Since David Eby took over 2 years ago, there has been a huge focus on housing, which I’ll get into more below.
BC United (Formerly BC Liberal) – Not officially on the ballot after Kevin Falcon unilaterally withdrew them from the election, but there are 17 independents running who were formerly party candidates, including notable names like Mike Bernier (Peace River South) and Coarlee Oakes (North Cariboo) who are former cabinet ministers first elected in 2013.
The party was known as the “free-enterprise coalition” and focused on lower taxes and big economic development projects (like LNG plants and the Site C dam). They balanced that with moderate social policies, including a high minimum wage, Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity (SOGI) education in schools, and Canada’s first carbon tax.
Conservative Party of BC – They are the real wildcard in this election. They’ve managed to ride the popularity of the federal Conservative Party and the confusion around who BC United is to become the main opposition, even though they’ve never elected a single MLA in BC in my lifetime (the last time they won a seat was 1975!).
The party is weird mix of rejects from the BC Liberals and weirdos too extreme to ever have been welcome in the BC Liberals. A lot of their candidates were chosen while they were still on the fringes of politics, so it’s not too surprising (although still alarming) to see conspiracy theorists of all sorts. Conservative candidates share beliefs such as chemtrail mind control, Bill Gates implanting microchips in vaccines, the government controlling the weather, climate change is a hoax, 5G is a genocidal weapon, LGBTQ+ are brainwashing youth, and great replacement theory. One BC Conservative candidate is even convinced that the COVID vaccine gives people VAIDS (an invented AIDS-like disease).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQqI5kZjsiU
And it’s not just a handful of wacky candidates, it’s most of them including the leader John Rustad himself, who was kicked out of BC Liberal party for denying climate change was real. He’s said all kinds of crazy things over the past few years, including a conspiracy about forcing people to eat bugs and talking about holding Nuremberg 2.0 trials to jail healthcare officials who administered vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic (he tried to walk that back – see below). This is the kind of thing that is popular on twitter and parts of the MAGA movement in the USA. It’s sad to see it become mainstream in BC.
BC Green Party – I don’t expect the Green Party to win a single seat this election. Their leader, Sonia Furstenau, made the mind-boggling decision to move to a Victoria riding held by an NDP cabinet minister. Their only other MLA, Adam Olsen, isn’t running for re-election.
If the PR referendum had passed, they might be consistent junior partner in government. Sadly it failed, and in our first-past-the-post voting system a vote for the Greens just helps the Conservatives. Kevin Falcon blew up his party to prevent vote splitting on the right, but it still exists on the left.
The Issues
But enough about the parties. What about the issues? My biggest concerns at the provincial level are housing, climate change, and health care.
I started writing an analysis comparing the platforms of each party but realized I was wasting my time. The Conservative platform is very thin and there are so many inconsistencies between what they have written down publicly and what their candidates have said. Rustad, and the other former BC Liberals who defected, are now running against the policies they brought in when they were last in power – like SOGI and the carbon tax. It’s hard to trust them.
That said, if you’re looking for a side-by-side comparison, the good journalists at CBC have put one together.
Housing
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I don’t think many people would dispute that housing costs too much in BC. Affordability was bad when I moved here in 2006 and it’s only gotten worse since then. There have been some attempts to make things better, but the real hard changes we need have been blocked by NIMBYs who don’t want change and homeowners who are afraid their investment might lose value.
Since Eby became leader of the NDP, the government has taken some of the most impactful actions to tackle the housing crisis that I’ve ever seen anywhere in the world (and I like to nerd out on housing policy). For the first time in my lifetime, I’m optimistic that my daughter will be able to own a home in BC when she grows up (if the changes aren’t undone by a new government).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJFn20hzccI
The NDP has gone after toxic demand (limiting speculators, foreign buyers, and AirBnB) and made it easier to build new housing (with increased density near transit stations and zoning changes province-wide that legalize missing middle densities). They’ve also tackled the nerdy parts of housing policy with simpler permitting, building code changes that allow single staircase buildings, and new prefab housing options. Most of these changes will take 5-10 years to really make an impact (construction takes time), but some have already started working – the AirBnB ban has dropped rents by $110/month on average. That’s huge!
https://youtu.be/iRdwXQb7CfM?si=-36cFBkuSFXzHOzU
The Conservatives would undo a lot of the changes. The zoning changes that allow 3-4 story, missing-middle buildings across most of the province, would be the first to go. Transit-oriented development, renter protections, and the AirBnB bad are also likely to get scrapped.
Worse still, the Conservative’s signature promise – The Rustad Rebate – gives every homeowner a tax rebate if they have mortgage payments. That is taking $3.5 billion dollars in tax revenue and lighting it on fire to fuel the housing market. It benefits the wealthiest the most and will only drive housing prices higher. It’s insane.
Climate Change and Transportation
https://flickr.com/photos/canadianveggie/53785702253
The NDP have a mixed record on the environment, climate change, and transportation. They initially opposed the carbon tax when it was introduced in 2008 and have refused to defend it as pressure has mounted federally. One of the first things they did when elected was to remove tolls on Metro Vancouver bridges – that saved commuters thousands of dollars, but it encouraged more people to drive.
On the positive side, BC has the most electric vehicles (EVs) in Canada, thanks to government subsidies and one of the best charging networks in North America. Our clean energy advantage is now powering a clean transportation system.
The NDP has been good for cyclists too. They modernized the Motor Vehicle Act to include minimum passing distances. Last year, BC had a hugely successful rebate that encouraged thousands of people to buy an e-bike. And although it’s a tiny fraction of the highway budget, they’ve helped build bike lanes with $150 million for infrastructure improvements in the past 2 years.
The Conservatives are climate skeptics, so it’s not surprising that their plan for climate change is “Make it Worse!” They want more people to throw away plastic, drive gasoline vehicles, and burn natural gas. Not only would they slow down the transition away from fossil fuels, they would actively work to encourage people to burn more of it, going so far as to promise new natural gas power plants will get built.
Health Care
https://flickr.com/photos/canadianveggie/37937566175
It’s no secret the pandemic hit our healthcare system hard. Our nurses, doctors, and paramedics have been under a lot of pressure. The NDP made recent improvements to family care in BC, but there is still a long way to go. I’ve lived most of my life in Vancouver without a family doctor because I couldn’t find one, but a year ago we finally found a primary physician for our whole family. And she’s awesome. That’s because of changes the NDP made to allow nurse practitioners to act as primary care providers and billing changes that have brought more family doctors in. There is more work to do, but BC has seen a 20% increase in family doctors and 300,000 more people with a primary care provider – that is huge progress.
The NDP have a lot of ideas on how to keep making improvements, but the one I want to highlight is “Axe the Fax.” Having worked on healthcare software for a few years, I know how much of a problem unreliable faxed referrals between doctors offices are. This is the kind of unsexy but important change that our healthcare system needs. Any party can promise to make things better, but it’s the little changes like this that actually do it.
The most likely outcome under a Conservative government is funding cuts (to fund the Rustad Rebate) and a war against doctors and nurses (driven by people who think vaccines cause VAIDS). When that inevitably leads to bad patient outcomes, they’ll use it as an excuse to increase privatization for those wealthy enough to afford it. Go ahead and read their healthcare ideas. They are promising shorter waits, not by making things better here, but by sending people to Alberta for treatment. To be clear, Alberta has its own healthcare problems and can’t handle a bunch of out-of-province patients.
Who You Should Vote For
This is the easiest recommendation I’ve ever given. The BC NDP have been doing a great job and they deserve to be reelected.
BC United gave up before the election started, which is a shame because they were the only other party with a governing track record. If you were a former supporter, I would encourage you to vote for the NDP this election and give the Conservatives some time to develop sensible policies and find sane candidates.
The BC Conservatives are a bunch of conspiracy theorists who would turn the province into a dumpster fire if elected. I’m truly worried about where we are headed if they win.
The BC Greens have steadily faded away and can only hope to split the vote in a handful of ridings to the Conservative benefit. If you are a Green supporter, I’d urge you to look at the NDP candidate in your riding and decide if they’ll be better for the environment than the Conservative.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/canadianveggie/54041660396/
There was an all-candidates forum held at our school for all the nearby ridings. There were 5 NDP candidates, 2 Greens, and a Communist who showed up to talk to voters. Not a single Conservative candidate made an appearance. I live in an NDP stronghold, but even in areas where the Conservatives have a good chance of winning, like Langley, they are skipping debates. I guess it’s easier to lie to voters and keep your crazy beliefs hidden when you can avoid talking in public.
So the decision for me is extra obvious, I’ll be voting for my NDP candidate, Joan Phillip. I got to talk to her at the candidate forum and liked what I heard – she spoke compassionately about making positive changes for people in BC.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/canadianveggie/54041983509
More broadly, I really appreciate how quietly competent the current NDP government is. They do the hard work of governing day in and out. No tantrums blaming other levels of government. No scapegoating of immigrants or minorities.
For everyone who made it this far, I’d like you to do as many of these as possible.
- Make a voting plan. Figure out when and where you’re going to vote and put a reminder in your calendar. Advance voting starts on October 10.
- Talk to 3 friends and convince them to vote.
- Donate to a political party or volunteer your time.
We’ll find out in 2 weeks if we reelect a competent government or let chaos reign. The polls are forecasting a frighteningly close race, so there is a good chance your vote will matter.
https://canadianveggie.com/2024/10/06/bc-election-2024-who-should-i-vote-for/
