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Miki :rstats:<p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/30DayChartChallenge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>30DayChartChallenge</span></a> Día 12: Gov Data Day! 🏛️ Explorando la distribución del spread 10Y-2Y del Tesoro USA (datos de FRED desde 1976).</p><p>Este histograma/densidad va más allá del valor diario: muestra la *probabilidad* histórica de cada nivel del spread. ¡Clave para entender expectativas económicas!</p><p>Puntos clave:<br>* Modo principal &gt; 0 (curva normal es lo más común).<br>* ¡La inversión (&lt;0, línea discontinua) tiene una probabilidad no trivial! ⚠️ Es la famosa señal pre-recesión. La distribución nos dice cuán "normal" es esa señal en perspectiva histórica.<br>* La forma general revela info sobre la dinámica de tipos.</p><p>Una visualización sobre la estructura probabilística de un indicador líder fundamental.</p><p>🛠️ <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/quantmod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>quantmod</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/grid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>grid</span></a><br>📂 Código/Repo: <a href="https://t.ly/0RDmK" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">t.ly/0RDmK</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Day12" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Day12</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Distributions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Distributions</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/datagov" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>datagov</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/dataviz" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>dataviz</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DataVisualization" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataVisualization</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/YieldCurve" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YieldCurve</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/InterestRates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>InterestRates</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Economics</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Finance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Finance</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Recession" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Recession</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DataAnalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataAnalysis</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a></p>
Miki :rstats:<p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/30DayChartChallenge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>30DayChartChallenge</span></a> Día 11: Stripes! Mi versión: ¡El código de barras del pánico del mercado! 😱</p><p>Este gráfico muestra una línea de tiempo (1993-2025) donde cada raya vertical representa un día en que el VIX cerró ≥ 30 (¡alta tensión!).</p><p>El concepto clave aquí es el **Volatility Clustering**: la alta volatilidad no se distribuye uniformemente, ¡viene en rachas! Los densos grupos de rayas identifican visualmente las grandes crisis (Dot-com, GFC '08, Covid '20...). Los largos periodos en blanco son la calma relativa.</p><p>Es una forma directa de ver la *persistencia* y los *regímenes* de la volatilidad del mercado. ¡Olvida las medias simples, el estrés viene en oleadas! 🌊</p><p>🛠️ Hecho con <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a>, <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a>, <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/quantmod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>quantmod</span></a>.<br>📂 Código/Repo: <a href="https://t.ly/-vd9u" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">t.ly/-vd9u</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Day11" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Day11</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Stripes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Stripes</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/dataviz" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>dataviz</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DataVisualization" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataVisualization</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/VIX" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>VIX</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Volatility" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Volatility</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Finance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Finance</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/StockMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>StockMarket</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Economics</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/RiskManagement" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>RiskManagement</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/TimeSeries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>TimeSeries</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/MarketHistory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MarketHistory</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DataScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataScience</span></a></p>
Miki :rstats:<p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/30DayChartChallenge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>30DayChartChallenge</span></a> Día 10: ¡Buceando en la Distribución del VIX! 🌊</p><p>En lugar de solo ver la línea del VIX, hoy analizamos su "distribución de probabilidad" por Presidencia de EE.UU. (Clinton -&gt; Trump 2º). ¡La forma lo es todo!</p><p>Usando <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a> y <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a>, estas densidades facetadas nos permiten investigar:<br>* Modos Dominantes: ¿Cuál era el nivel "normal" de VIX (el pico más alto)? ¿Cambió mucho?<br>* Multi-modalidad: ¿Hay evidencia de múltiples estados de volatilidad (picos secundarios) dentro de un mismo mandato? 🤔 <br>* Riesgo de Cola: ¿Qué tan probable era el "pánico" (VIX &gt; 35)? ¡Compara las colas derechas!</p><p>Estos patrones reflejan los distintos regímenes de volatilidad y la percepción del riesgo sistémico. No es solo el nivel, ¡sino la "estructura" de la incertidumbre lo que importa!</p><p>Datos: Yahoo Finance via <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/quantmod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>quantmod</span></a>.<br>📂Código: <a href="https://t.ly/kikdo" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">t.ly/kikdo</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Day10" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Day10</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Multimodal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Multimodal</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/dataviz" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>dataviz</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DataVisualization" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataVisualization</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/VIX" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>VIX</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Volatility" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Volatility</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Finance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Finance</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/StockMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>StockMarket</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Economics</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/RiskManagement" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>RiskManagement</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ggplot2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ggplot2</span></a></p>