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#uncertainty

3 posts3 participants1 post today

"The long arc of the future always rewards the resilient!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

It is what it is. We are where we are. This moment in 2025 feels like a bad dream to many, and the assault on the global economy was a tipping point for many worldwide. With that in mind, I'm devoting the next few weeks of my Daily Inspiration to addressing a key question: How do we lead through uncertainty. How do we lead ourselves - what's our mindset? How do we lead others - how can we help? How do we lead our organizations - how do we keep moving forward? I spent a lot of time on this theme during and after the downturns of 2001, 2008 and again during 2020. There is a lot to revisit, and a lot to think about. The theme is 'resilience,' and we can all learn more about. 

We’re living through an era where it feels like the very idea of progress is under siege.

Science is questioned. Facts are ignored. Bold ideas are met with backlash. Funding is cut. In parts of the world—especially in the U.S.—there’s a growing, dangerous desire to rewind the clock. It’s an effort to return to some imaginary "better time," rather than confronting the future with the courage and creativity it demands.

And yet—despite it all—the future hasn’t stopped moving forward.

You can delay progress. You can defund it. You can deny it. You can hammer it with ill-advised or even idiotic decisions.But you can’t delete it.

Never forget that fact, and act accordingly.

Don't give in. Don't give up. Don't give way.

The long arc of innovation always bends forward. History is clear on this: the future always finds a way.

It’s tempting, especially now, to be disillusioned. To believe the cynics are winning. To think progress is on pause. It's easy to let fear strike us every day, stunning us into frozen disbelief.

But don’t confuse noise for momentum. The future doesn’t follow headlines. It follows courage, capital, and conviction. And all three are still alive and well—albeit a bit battered and bruised. But they are still there.

As a futurist, I’ve always said the future belongs to those who are fast. But today, I’d add this: it also belongs to those who refuse to flinch.

If some people want to step back from the future—that’s their choice.

You? Step forward. The future is still yours— ours— to build.

----

Futurist Jim Carroll gets up every morning, checking the headlines, seeking the answer to the same question. You know what it is.

**#Resilience** **#Future** **#Innovation** **#Progress** **#Leadership** **#Uncertainty** **#Optimism** **#Courage** **#Mindset** **#Adaptation**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

Replied to Nonilex

"Looking ahead, higher #tariffs will be working their way through our #economy & are likely to raise #inflation in coming quarters," #JeromePowell said.

"While #uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected, & the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation & slower growth."

US #Stock indexes extend losses after #FederalReserve chair Powell remarks were released.

Deception, Obfuscation & Misdirection

This is a concatenation of posts I originally made in 2016-2017--even more relevant today...

Most are familiar with the concept of #FUD—short for #Fear, #Uncertainty & #Doubt. It summarizes a strategy often used in marketing and political propaganda. Its effects are pernicious, divisive and lead to exploitation. Examples abound. Fear is a strong motivator! To resist FUD one must understand how it is practiced using the principles of #Deception, #Obfuscation and #Misdirection.

mdpaths.com/rrr/commentary/dec

#US #stocks are falling steeply Friday following discouraging updates on inflation & how much US households may be willing to spend given all the #uncertainty about #Trump’s escalating #TradeWar.

The S&P 500 was down 1.5% in midday trading. That would make this the 5th losing week in the last 6 for the index….

The Dow was down 520 points, or 1.2%, as of 11:30AM ET, & the Nasdaq composite was 2.1% lower.

#economy #tariffs #jobs #insecurity #trumpcession #recession
apnews.com/article/market-rate

AP News · Wall Street tumbles, and S&P 500 drops 2% on worries about slower economy and higher inflationBy Stan Choe

The Physics of Presence

Linking Physics and Meditation

Continued research in quantum physics bridges the gap between science and meditation, showing in deeper ways the interconnectedness of all things. As scientists explore the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics, they uncover insights that challenge our traditional understanding of reality and resonate with ancient philosophies, emphasizing unity and consciousness. This ongoing exploration highlights how every particle is not just a separate entity but a part of a vast, intricate web of existence, deepening our awareness of the profound relationship between the observer and the observed. By integrating these findings with mindfulness practices, we cultivate a richer understanding of our place within the universe, encouraging a holistic perspective that fosters personal growth and collective harmony.

Observation

For some time scientists have known about the significance of the observer and their impact on outcomes, demonstrating that the physical world is not all there is. A deep, unseen field of energy responds to our thoughts and actions, influencing our personal experiences and the collective consciousness that binds us. This interplay between observation and reality suggests that our perceptions shape the very fabric of existence, opening doors to possibilities beyond physical matter’s limitations. By recognizing this profound connection, we empower ourselves to tap into more significant potential, harnessing the energy around us to create positive change in our lives and those of others. Understanding this dynamic relationship encourages us to reflect on our intentions and the reality we wish to manifest.

“In all my research I have never come across matter. To me the term matter implies a bundle of energy which is given form by an intelligent spirit.”

Max Planck

Quantum Concepts Related to Meditation

  • The Observer Effect: In quantum mechanics, the act of observation can influence the behavior of particles. Mindfulness teaches us to observe our thoughts and feelings without judgment, which, in turn, can alter our perceptions and experiences.
  • Quantum Entanglement: the mysterious phenomenon where two particles remain connected no matter the distance, symbolizing the interconnectedness we feel through mindfulness and meditation, emphasizing the unity of all things.
  • Uncertainty Principle: This principle states that we cannot know a particle’s position and momentum with absolute certainty simultaneously. It parallels how mindfulness encourages us to embrace uncertainty and flow with life’s unpredictability.
Photo by Ruslan Alekso on Pexels.com

Practice

Engaging in mindful exercises and gently opening ourselves to the wonders of the quantum realm can cultivate a deeper understanding of ourselves and the natural world around us.

Meditation as a Practice of Presence

Here are some simple practices that unite the quantum with meditation:

  • Observing Thoughts: Compare the mind to a quantum field where thoughts, like particles, appear and disappear in an ever-changing dance of consciousness. Meditation allows us to observe these “particles” without attachment or judgment, much like a quantum physicist observes an experiment with keen awareness and neutrality. This practice fosters a deeper understanding of the nature of reality and the transient qualities of our mental processes, enabling us to cultivate mindfulness and presence in our daily lives.
  • Connecting with the Universe: A mindfulness practice could evoke the feeling of entanglement, reminding us of our profound connection to others and the vast cosmos around us. Engaging in this practice invites moments of reflection where we can consider our place within the universe, nurturing a sense of unity with all beings and affirming the interconnectedness of existence. Through such awareness, we cultivate deeper relationships with ourselves and those we encounter, ultimately fostering a greater sense of peace and understanding.
  • Embracing Impermanence: The uncertainty principle can be a metaphor for the transient nature of emotions and experiences, aligning with meditation’s focus on acceptance. By recognizing that emotions are fleeting and continually evolving, we can cultivate a more profound sense of mindfulness that encourages us to live in the moment. This awareness allows us to fully experience our emotions without becoming attached to them, fostering a more profound understanding of the interconnectedness of all experiences in our lives.

Scientific Validation

Recent studies* have shown how mindfulness rewires the brain and reduces age-related degeneration, highlighting its profound impact on cognitive health. By practicing mindfulness regularly, individuals can enhance their focus and emotional well-being and promote neuroplasticity, which is the brain’s ability to adapt and reorganize itself. This form of mental training has been linked to slowing cognitive decline associated with aging**, helping to maintain memory retention and cognitive functions. Furthermore, incorporating mindfulness techniques into daily routines can improve quality of life as people become more aware of their thoughts and feelings, ultimately fostering a greater sense of peace and stability in an increasingly chaotic world.

Read more on *PubMed and **Nature

Practical Mindfulness

Photo by Vishva Patel on Pexels.com

Clearly, you don’t need to be a physicist to practice mindfulness. The point is to awaken curiosity and awe for the universe and to find stillness amid its vast complexity. By embracing mindfulness, anyone can tap into the profound beauty surrounding them, fostering a deeper connection with the world and themselves. This practice invites us to explore our thoughts and feelings with an open heart, cultivating a sense of wonder that encourages us to appreciate the intricate details of life. In this way, mindfulness becomes a bridge to understanding the cosmos and the richness of our inner landscapes, helping us navigate challenges while remaining grounded in the present moment.

Begin Gently

This practice can be as simple as taking a moment to notice and become aware of yourself and your surroundings, including all the sensory experiences around you, such as the subtle sounds in the background, the textures of objects you touch, and the scents that float through the air. Engaging fully with your environment can enhance your appreciation for the present. If your mind begins to wander, gently guide it back to the present moment, allowing yourself a brief pause to reconnect with the act of noticing, perhaps by taking a deep breath or observing the rhythm of your thoughts with curiosity instead of judgment. This intentional shift can foster a greater sense of calm, clarity, and connection to the world around you.

Only on InsightTimer

Once you’ve explored the additional resources, consider taking a moment for a quantum meditation; it can be a wonderful way to connect with the infinite potential within your mind and spirit.

*Lardone A, Liparoti M, Sorrentino P, Rucco R, Jacini F, Polverino A, Minino R, Pesoli M, Baselice F, Sorriso A, Ferraioli G, Sorrentino G, Mandolesi L. Mindfulness Meditation Is Related to Long-Lasting Changes in Hippocampal Functional Topology during Resting State: A Magnetoencephalography Study. Neural Plast. 2018 Dec 18;2018:5340717. doi: 10.1155/2018/5340717. PMID: 30662457; PMCID: PMC6312586.

**Yue, W.L., Ng, K.K., Koh, A.J. et al. Mindfulness-based therapy improves brain functional network reconfiguration efficiency. Transl Psychiatry 13, 345 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41398-023-02642-9

"Courage is the ability to speak out when no one else will" - Futurist Jim Carroll

No one seems to be willing to speak up while the damage is being done. Courage has disappeared. Corporate leadership seems to be excelling at mastering the art of being a wimp.

Sure, several top business leaders are 'expressing concern' about how tariff policies might affect companies and the broader economy. But few are willing to do anything. Meanwhile, all the uncertainty from the whiplash of insanity leads to a vortex of crashing consumer confidence, wild volatility, and the likelihood of an economic downturn.

Public comments are weak at best. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase recently changed his view on tariffs, noting that "uncertainty is not a good thing" and suggesting businesses may need to adjust their operations. With that, his team has increased their recession probability estimate from 30% to 40%. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNN that "the economy is weakening as we speak" due to current policies, causing both individuals and business leaders to hesitate and reduce activity.

But aside from a few weak comments like this, few are speaking up. There is no courage. The fact is, while many other CEOs have expressed similar concerns privately, it seems few are willing to speak up. The lack of courage is palpable. This became the subject of an article in the Wall Street Journal the other day.

Consider the article.

---

How business leaders talk about the Trump administration in private has been markedly different than what they are game to say in public. The dissonance was on full display here this week. 

Early on Tuesday, dozens of corporate executives and others assembled at a Yale CEO Caucus not far from the White House just as news emerged that the Trump administration planned to potentially double tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada. Those in the room responded with a mix of groans and shocked laughter. 

“There was universal revulsion against the Trump economic policies,” said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management, who organized the invite-only summit that included corporate bosses such as JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, billionaire Michael Dell and Pfizer’s Albert Bourla. “They’re also especially horrified about Canada.” 

That sentiment wasn’t apparent hours later, when many of the same chief executives from the Yale event attended a question-and-answer session with President Trump at the Business Roundtable. There, the exchange was largely cordial and executives didn’t ask the president any pointed questions about his tariff strategy, according to people familiar with the event. 

They're all silent. Scared of their shadows. These are the leaders taking the world into the future. 

**#Courage** **#Leadership** **#Silence** **#Economy** **#Risk** **#Uncertainty** **#Tariffs** **#Innovation** **#Action** **#Accountability**

jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-i

""It’s the unknown unknowns that will get you every time!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

On February 12, 2002, United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld answered a question at a U.S. Department of Defence (DoD) news briefing about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. His answer has since answered the lexicon of lore, as many people thought that it was fully intended to shield the department from any sort of criticism.

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."

His answer, though, was based on what is known as the "Awareness-understanding matrix", which provides that there are known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knows, and unknown unknowns. Complicated but helpful - when you study it, it makes sense. Things we are aware of and understand; things we are aware of but don't understand; things we are not aware of but understand or know implicitly; and then, the things we are neither aware of nor understand.

In that context, later this morning I'll speak to a room full of insurance CEOs and other senior executives from the industry at a major insurance conference. To get ready for the event, I grabbed about 1,500 articles about the latest trends impacting the insurance industry and used Google Notebook to analyze these articles for key bits of insight.

I will be speaking, among many other issues, about the future of insurance risk, and in that context, will impress upon them that it's the "unknown unknowns" they should worry about - the things they are neither aware of nor understand.

What are those unknown unknowns? In a brief moment of inspiration, I fed it this prompt, in effect asking the AI to analyze these 1500 articles and summarize them.

This is what it came back with, which I worked into my slide deck:

"The insurance industry is caught in a whirlwind: climate volatility, liability inflation, data chaos, talent scarcity, and relentless regulatory pressures, all while battling public mistrust and the nagging fear that tomorrow's risks are growing faster than our capacity to cover them”

That pretty much summarizes my slide deck!

Futurist Jim Carroll has spoken at over 200 insurance and risk-related events throughout the years.

**#Uncertainty** **#Risk** **#Insurance** **#Future** **#Unknown** **#Innovation** **#Technology** **#Preparedness** **#Disruption** **#Awareness**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-i