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Schaeffer et. al. argue that the emergent abilities are predictably acquired according to a smooth scaling law.

Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?
arxiv.org/abs/2304.15004

Prompt engineering: Chain-of-thought reasoning:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prompt_e

arXiv.orgAre Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning seemingly instantaneously from not present to present, and their unpredictability, appearing at seemingly unforeseeable model scales. Here, we present an alternative explanation for emergent abilities: that for a particular task and model family, when analyzing fixed model outputs, emergent abilities appear due to the researcher's choice of metric rather than due to fundamental changes in model behavior with scale. Specifically, nonlinear or discontinuous metrics produce apparent emergent abilities, whereas linear or continuous metrics produce smooth, continuous predictable changes in model performance. We present our alternative explanation in a simple mathematical model, then test it in three complementary ways: we (1) make, test and confirm three predictions on the effect of metric choice using the InstructGPT/GPT-3 family on tasks with claimed emergent abilities; (2) make, test and confirm two predictions about metric choices in a meta-analysis of emergent abilities on BIG-Bench; and (3) show to choose metrics to produce never-before-seen seemingly emergent abilities in multiple vision tasks across diverse deep networks. Via all three analyses, we provide evidence that alleged emergent abilities evaporate with different metrics or with better statistics, and may not be a fundamental property of scaling AI models.

Here’s my #Introduction - 👋 I’m Ed and I run a #Consultancy called Emerging Field - I work in #PublicSector #Data teams leading on #Innovation, #Strategy, #UserResearch, #ServiceDesign, and also contribute to research on #DataGovernance and #DataStewardship. I’m a #Facilitator online and in person.

Toots about - #Openness, #Participation, #UCD, #SocialJustice, #LGBTQIA+ issues, #CriesIntoTheVoid etc. Here to learn more about #DataJustice, #SystemsTheory, #CommunityBuilding, #Degrowth.

An overdue #introduction 👋 (thanks for the prompt when I switched instances @aussocialadmin )

My name is Scott and I live in Sydney (on Wangal Country in the Inner West). My pronouns are he / him.

I was born and raised in Canada (Alberta, even), and have lived in some great places around the world (Montreal, NYC, Vermont, rural Kenya). Being a Canadian man of a certain age, yes, I play hockey. Even in Australia.

I've been very (not extremely) online since the 90s. First it was rec.music.phish, then fark.com, then the Big Tech Socials.

I strive to behave with compassion and to be more kind than nice. But I also shitpost from time to time because internet.

I'm interested in lots of things and barely maintain a blurred boundary between personal and professional. See hashtags below or on my profile for a more specific list, but I think it's generally encompassed by the concept of #interbeing which I understand as being coined by Thich Nhat Hanh and drawn from Vietnamese and older Buddhist concepts.

Hashtags ftw: #anthropology #anarchism #buddhism #collaboration #collectiveImprovisation #complexity #complexSystems #conviviality #culture #decolonisation #design #designResearch #engagedAnthropology #engagedBuddhism #engagedDesign #ethnography #foresight #futures #hockey #improvisation #JustTransition #music #pluriverse #politicalEcology #protopia #serviceDesign #strategicDesign #systemsTheory #systemsThinking #speculativeEverything