"Prominent voices worry that generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) will negatively impact elections worldwide and trigger a misinformation apocalypse. A recurrent fear is that GenAI will make it easier to influence voters and facilitate the creation and dissemination of potent mis- and disinformation. We argue that despite the incredible capabilities of GenAI systems, their influence on election outcomes has been overestimated. Looking back at 2024, the predicted outsized effects of GenAI did not happen and were overshadowed by traditional sources of influence. We review current evidence on the impact of GenAI in the 2024 elections and identify several reasons why the impact of GenAI on elections has been overblown. These include the inherent challenges of mass persuasion, the complexity of media effects and people’s interaction with technology, the difficulty of reaching target audiences, and the limited effectiveness of AI-driven microtargeting in political campaigns. Additionally, we argue that the socioeconomic, cultural, and personal factors that shape voting behavior outweigh the influence of AI-generated content. We further analyze the bifurcated discourse on GenAI’s role in elections, framing it as part of the ongoing “cycle of technology panics.” While acknowledging AI’s risks, such as amplifying social inequalities, we argue that focusing on AI distracts from more structural threats to elections and democracy, including voter disenfranchisement and attacks on election integrity. The paper calls for a recalibration of the narratives around AI and elections, proposing a nuanced approach that considers AI within broader sociopolitical contexts."

https://knightcolumbia.org/content/dont-panic-yet-assessing-the-evidence-and-discourse-around-generative-ai-and-elections

New paper:

‘Issue ownership in the online campaign for Dutch general elections: A topic modeling approach.’

By Joren Vrancken, Tom Dobber, and me.

Journal of Digital Social Research, open access.

https://publicera.kb.se/jdsr/article/view/54885

Important #UK #petition to sign: "Ban behavioural data extraction for advertising"

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/713456

If you are a UK citizen or UK resident PLEASE SIGN THIS

We need the #government to take this seriously so creeps like this #databroker don't get more data:
https://gizmodo.com/data-broker-brags-about-having-highly-detailed-personal-information-on-nearly-all-internet-users-2000575762

And #democracy is undermined by the #microtargeting from #socialmedia - #Trump /Brexit/Romania etc

This is what we're up against. Fact-free CERTAINTY from #MAGA muppets:

https://x.com/MAGACult2/status/1896539648089903507

Their echo chamber is fueled by right wing news outlets, but the real division was sown a while ago by #algorighmic #socialmedia and #microtargeting

#bigtech didn't use 'divide and conquer', they used 'atomise and conquer'

And meanwhile the masses are cooperating in their own surveillance by feeding #surveillancecapitalism

Any suggestions for how to bring people back to the 'shared centre'?

"people under permanent supervision will, in time, adopt behaviours that are pleasing to others rather than true to themselves"

Great observation by Jamie Susskind in his excellent #book The Digital Republic

So even if you're not bothered about the #threattodemocracy posed by #surveillancecapitalism and #bigtech,
maybe it'll annoy you to know that we're all being moulded into sycophantic fakes.

#tracking #microtargeting

This idea is also explored in Doppelganger by Naomi Klein.

#microtargeting https://youtu.be/UzfVjgZKjro?si=SXgMnoQBz4_WlTET

We know about the #Trump campaign using #CambridgeAnalytica to swing the 2016 election, and Russia getting involved, but gun associations? That's new to me.

https://www.propublica.org/article/guns-lobbying-cambridge-analytica-nssf-privacy-elections

3rd party vested interests providing citizen private data to dodgy firms to swing elections is a pretty dark use of #microtargeting. On a par (nearly) with what the #UniversityOfPhoenix was caught doing

Warum wir #Spotify meiden sollten:
* Kein #Datenschutz (#Datensammelwut)
* Ausbeutung der Kreativen(mickrige Einnahmebeteiligung)
* Für #Kleinkünstler unter 1000 Aufrufen gar nicht mehr
* Intransparenz
* "Das System beutet kleine Künstler noch stärker aus als die GEMA."

https://die-flaschenpost.de/2024/12/22/warum-spotify-fuer-piraten-ein-no-go-sein-sollte

Great exerpt about the #RTB system (advertising bidstream data) from p120 of Privacy Is Power, by Carissa Veliz:

If #trump backtracks on the #tiktok ban, it will be because "In December Trump said he had a "warm spot" for the app as it helped him with young voters in the 2024 election."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyeer3qp12o

It is sad that morons keep using these kind of apps - the ones with #algorithms that allow #microtargeting of ads. And guess what: aggressive misinformation campaigns to win elections also count as ads!

The root cause is #surveillancecapitalism and the #bidsteam behavioural data in the #RTB system

Out in PNAS!
https://www.pnas.org/eprint/AWU8WZ9GVGPPGP9FJT3D/full

#Political #microtargeting has become a topic of great concern (eg Cambridge Analytica) But does it actually WORK? To find out, we ran a large-scale experiment to quantify the persuasive advantage of political microtargeting for US issue advocacy campaigns

The answer is complicated...

We find a sizable benefit of #targeting (~70% more persuasive than showing everyone the best overall message) - but little additional benefit from *micro*targeting on numerous different characteristics simultaneously

Our study used a 2-step process. First, we trained machine learning models on experimental data to learn which messages are most persuasive/for whom.

Then, we recruited 5k new people randomized them into [Control; Random message; Best overall message; or Microtargeted message, chosen by training targeting model on 1, 2, or 4 different participant characteristics] & compared persuasion across conditions.

Give the paper a read to see details!