Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/forecaster-reacts-metrs-bombshell
The Power Law · Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
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"The future won’t wait for your zip code to catch up! " - Futurist Jim Carroll
Yesterday I noted that the future won't slow down to wait for you to make a decision.
It also has little respect for those who try to avoid the reality that they are in a global economy.
When you step back and look around the world, something becomes crystal clear: The future is not unfolding in one place. It’s emerging everywhere—in labs in Ireland, factories in Vietnam, logistics hubs in the UAE, AI startups in Seoul, and solar grids in Morocco.
But while this global acceleration is happening, too many leaders and organizations are still thinking small. They’re stuck in a local mindset—tethered to domestic market opportunities, legacy business models, obsolete products or services, or outdated assumptions about where real progress comes from.
Here’s the reality: you can’t lead in tomorrow’s economy by thinking inside yesterday’s borders. I've said it before - the future doesn’t care about your region, your history, or your comfort zone. It flows to where the momentum lives. And that momentum is increasingly global.
- AI isn't just a Silicon Valley story—it's being industrialized in China, scaled in Europe, and accelerated in the United Arab Emirates
- the energy transition isn’t a North American trend —it’s becoming the default infrastructure in Scandinavia and the Middle East
- electric vehicles aren't some radical idea with a narrow future - it's becoming the dominant platform in China, Finland, and elsewhere
- advanced manufacturing isn't stuck in Detroit—it's transforming supply chains in Vietnam, Poland, and Mexico.
Meanwhile, companies that remain locally fixated are finding themselves cut off from opportunity—missing emerging markets, lagging on innovation, and getting blindsided by competitors they never saw coming. The world used to watch what happened in one or two countries to know where things were going. Now? You have to watch everywhere - because innovation doesn’t care about geography.
This reality is accelerating in the current economic and political volatility that defies 2025 - such that while one region tries to restore past glories, the rest of the world has decided to continue moving forward. Watch the latter - not the former - to figure out where tomorrow is now unfolding.
Here’s what that means for your strategy:
- innovation is borderless.
- local thinking limits opportunity.
- a global mindset = competitive advantage.
- the future flows to momentum, not geography.
So ask yourself: Are you making decisions based on where the world once was? Or are you aligning with where it’s already going?
Because the future isn’t local anymore.
It’s global.
And it’s moving fast.
**#Global** **#Innovation** **#Future** **#Geography** **#Momentum** **#Opportunity** **#Mindset** **#Competition** **#Acceleration**
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-the-future-wont-wait-for-your-zip-code-to-catch-up/
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"Un smartphone est un concentré d’industries : minière, pétrolière, chimique, auxquelles s’ajoute l’industrie du data mining, de l’extraction de données. Comme je l’indique dans mon livre, selon les données de Fairphone, il faut des composants issus de plus de mille usines différentes pour permettre produire un seul « smartphone »."
Nous sommes "prisonniers d’un spectacle dans lequel les progrès de la technologie se sont en quelque sorte substitués à l’histoire."
Celia Izoard : https://www.contretemps.eu/entretien-celia-izoard-ruee-miniere/
CONTRETEMPS · Extraire des métaux pour sauver la planète ? Entretien avec Celia Izoard - CONTRETEMPS
SciTech Chronicles. . . . . . . . .April 9th, 2025
#virus #vector-based #T-cell #respiratory #moisture #temperature #instability #latent-heat #transient #temporal #singularities #acceleration #fuel-cell #PEM #fincantieri #decarbonization #1420MHz #redshift #88-108MHz #CubeSats
bit.lySciTech Chronicles. . . . . . . . .April 9th, 2025Vol II No 8 347 links Curated The quality of a democracy depends upon the quality of its voters; an apathetic, uninformed public will only g...
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Garcia is the highwater point of Object Orientated Philosophy... after that it was downhill all the way... still its prefereable in everyway to the dubious #Acceleration(ism) that followed it...
New #TornadoVM v1.1.0 release!
Improved profiling and logging. New memory and buffer management features to persist and reuse data. Support for more atomic operations.
Work done under #horizoneurope and UK Research and Innovation funded projects: AERO Project, TANGO EU, P2CODE project, ENCRYPT Project!
hanks to all our contributors! 
Hartmut Rosa : Le paradoxe de la société hyperconnectée mais incompréhensible
Nouveau billet : "Hartmut Rosa : Le paradoxe de la société hyperconnectée" Découvrez comment Rosa analyse le paradoxe moderne : Accélération sociale 
Désynchronisation 
Aliénation 
Disponibilité du monde vs illisibilité 
Repenser notre rapport au temps et au monde ! #HartmutRosa #Accélération #SociétéIncompréhensible Hartmut Rosa, philosophe allemand, met en lumière un paradoxe…
Nature–society relations in disaster governance frameworks
"This paper studies how the relations between nature and society are constructed in disaster governance frameworks. Dominant disaster governance frameworks present nature and society as separate realms, and the organisation of society is increasingly seen as the key cause of hazards and disasters. Disaster impacts are similarly framed around adverse societal consequences, while other-than-human nature is merely the background across which disasters unfold, as property lost, or a means of disaster governance. Although the centrality of human impacts is troubled when biodiversity or a disaster flagship species is threatened, neither situation challenges the nature–society dualism embedded in dominant disaster governance frameworks. The attention and resources of disaster governance target the societal side of nature–society dualism. This study finds, though, that in peripheries characterised by remoteness from centres of power, a sparse human population, and large spaces of other-than-human nature, the vulnerabilities facing humans and other-than-human nature risk being ungoverned."
>>
Meriläinen, E. (2025). Nature–society relations in disaster governance frameworks. Disasters, 49(2), e12678. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/disa.12678
#disasters #NaturalDisasters #governance #property #tourism #NSW #remoteness #FossilFuels #ClimateBreakdown #acceleration #climate #Bushfires #floods #cyclone #FirstResponders #trauma #nature #biodiversity #forests #NSWLogging #roads #koalas #deforestation #OtherThanHumanNature #NatureSocietyDualism #peripheries #vulnerability
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"Humanity has endured for 1 million years for one simple reason: it is bound by limits. It is effectively regulated, and it is this regulation that lies at the heart of its genius.
[…]
"Capital very quickly relied on the sciences, and this was not simply the result of cultural impregnation.
"Classical science separates and analyses. All capital relies on this powerful process and adds to it control through quantification. A principle of devitalisation at the heart of modern technique.
"This thanatocratic principle of capital, without which it is nothing, takes place in three stages: privatisation of the means, industrialisation of devitalisation, and being as a commodity."
Thread in French: https://piaille.fr/@Ciriaco/113083670282268574 by @Ciriaco
PiailleCiriaco (@Ciriaco@piaille.fr)Ce qu'Hegel, pré-systémicien, a vu, c'est que la forme historique est intelligible. Pour dire les choses au rabais, l'histoire, c'est ce qui est à l'image de la loi normale pour les événements aléatoires : un ordre émerge.
Si l'humanité perdure pendant 1 million d'années, c'est pour une raison simple : elle est tenue par des limites. Elle est efficacement régulée, et c'est cette régulation qui est au fond de son génie.
Ce n'est pas un hasard en effet si la prise de contrôle anthropologique (et thanatocratique, j'y reviendrai) par le capital via le dépassement des limites coïncide, très précisément à l'échelle, avec l'effondrement des sociétés.
Climate change is shrinking glaciers faster than ever, with 7 trillion tons lost since 2000
https://apnews.com/article/glaciers-melting-climate-change-ice-loss-af8ff74dbbb9aabdc537adcbc9eb6010
A new and massive study finds that climate change is melting the world’s mountain glaciers faster than ever.
"What makes you unique is what will make you successful!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
From one book project to two others!
I'm working away on Escaping Mediocrity, but the other book that is waiting in the wings is "Being Unique."
I've been away from the project for some time, but came to realize that, like the lost Basement Tapes, I've got a lost Chapter 11 of the book that I wrote and misplaced! Since I'm not sure where we stand with the project at this point - I've been away from it for so long - I'm not sure if
I worked it into the most recent 'final' manuscript or not!
Reading it, it's a pretty good summary wrap-up for the book, and so I'll share it here!
----
The world is moving at a blistering pace. The future isn't just coming - it's accelerating. And in this high-velocity reality, being different isn't just an option - it's your strategic weapon for getting there first.
That much should be clear from reading this book.
The Uniqueness Imperative
With that being the case, here’s the key point you should take away: the safe path to tomorrow is now the riskiest route.
That’s because while others race to conform, real opportunities emerge for those who dare to stand apart.
This isn't just about being different - it's about being ahead.
Consider these realities:
Innovation happens at the edges, where unique thinking flourishes
Breakthroughs come from those who see patterns others miss
The future belongs to those who refuse to fit into today's boxes
Think about how the world works now:
While everyone chases the same opportunities, the unique find new ones
When others seek consensus, the different ones create breakthroughs
As many follow established paths, the distinctive forge new ones
The Strategic Power of Being Different
That’s what you need to keep in mind as you carve out your unique place in the world.
The future marketplace has no room for the ordinary. Every commodity skill is being automated. Every standard approach is being disrupted.
Every conventional wisdom is being challenged.
You need to think about your uniqueness as your strategic superpower: and here’s where your uniqueness becomes strategic:
When you think differently, you see opportunities first
When you act differently, you get to those opportunities faster
When you innovate differently, you create opportunities others miss
And you need to do this at the speed demanded by today’s world.
----
Jim’s book, Being Unique — And Why It Will Get to Your Future Faster, will be released sometime during the spring of 2025!
#Uniqueness #Innovation #Strategy #Acceleration #Differentiation #Leadership #Future #Success #Disruption #Opportunity
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/02/daily-inspiration-being-unique-what-makes-you-unique-is-what-will-make-you-successful/
Intentional road crashes
In Australia, fatal road crashes are climbing again.
"Suicide or accident? The hidden complexities of intentional road crashes in Australia
International research suggests driver suicides may account for up to 8–9% of all fatal road crashes. But studies indicate up to half of these cases may go unreported."
"Between 2001 and 2017, the rate of suicide involving a road vehicle collision in Australia nearly doubled from 0.125 per 100,000 people to 0.25 per 100,000. "
"Unlike most other suicide methods, road vehicle collisions pose a significant risk to others.Intentional crashes can involve unsuspecting drivers, passengers and pedestrians, turning a personal act of self-harm into a broader public safety issue."
>>
https://theconversation.com/suicide-or-accident-the-hidden-complexities-of-intentional-road-crashes-in-australia-248673
#cars #drivers #crashes #males #violence #accident #pedestrians #harm #risks #mentalhealth #rage #roads #mobilitydesign #speed #FossilFuel #acceleration
The ConversationSuicide or accident? The hidden complexities of intentional road crashes in Australia
More from 
The Conversation AU + NZ
Linked is a new terminal emulator. What interests me is that it is said to be embeddable because it is distributed also as a library with well defined apis.https://salas.com/2024/12/27/ghostty-orgghostty--ghostty-is/#terminal #emulator #cross-platform #gpu #acceleration #terminal-emulator
https://www.europesays.com/1706320/ Dodge Charger Daytona Heads to Europe for 2026 Sources Say #100.5KWh #2026 #400Volt #Acceleration #battery #BatteryTech #ChargerDaytona #ChargerScatPack #Charger.R/T #Dodge #ElectricDriveModule #ElectricMuscle #ElectricPropulsion #ElectricVehicle #electrification #ERuptTransmission #europe #EuropeanMarket #ev #FIAWorldSBK #FourDoor #Horsepower #IdaZetterström #MoparInsiders #MuscleCar #NHRA #NickelCobaltAluminum #PerformanceCar #Torque #TwoDoor #Windsor #WindsorAssembly
Daily Inspiration: "Follow the science" - Futurist Jim Carroll
If anything will keep me rooted in reality and on the side of optimism in 2025 it will be by continuing to follow the science.
This is in a society in which it seems an incredible number of people continue to reject the reality of both the fact of science itself and the acceleration that is occurring, which is, by and large, improving their lives. Odd.
Consider these observations from a recent keynote. The cost of sequencing the human genome has gone from about $100 million in 2011 to $200 or less today. The cost of 3D printing from about $50 per cm2 in 2010 to less than fifty cents today. Battery storage technology has gone from $1,100 per kWh to less than $100 today.
While it's difficult to state the absolute accuracy of numbers such as this because things are moving so fast, the fact is that similar trends abound.
(lots and lots of stats in the post)
I could go on, but you get the point.
We live in the era of the acceleration of science, a relentless pace, constantly accelerating even faster. The impact is far-reaching impacts in every single human endeavor. It leads us to fantastic discoveries such as lab-grown human blood for transfusions and surgeries; automated medical and pharmaceutical research laborites; self-healing concrete that is safer and longer lasting 3d printed human organs for transplants; synthetic bacteria used for new materials science; the medical discovery that involves major discoveries every 48 hours; and other fascinating new developments.
Science is at the heart of every single discovery, every significant invention, every massive disruption, and every profound transformation.
We'll spend much of 2025 with a ridiculous theatrical experience unfolding that involves grandiose showmanship by those eager to take out their anger and frustration on the very scientists who are leading to a better future.
How do we get through it all? In my case, I'll continue to track the trends that will define our future by following the reality of science.
It's where I discover my optimism, reinforce my hope, and continue to discover my exhilaration with tomorrow.
#Science #Innovation #Technology #AI #Progress #Future #Discovery #Research #Acceleration #Evolution
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2024/11/daily-inspiration-25-things-for-2025-2-follow-the-science/
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"Technique is no longer some uncertain and incomplete intermediary between humanity and the natural milieu. The latter is totally dominated and utilized (in Western society). Technique now constitutes a fabric of its own, replacing nature."
– Jacques Ellul in “Recherche pour une Ethique dans une société technicienne,” Morale et Enseignement, 1983, page 7
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La technique n'est plus un intermédiaire incertain et incomplet entre l'homme et le milieu naturel. Ce dernier est totalement dominé et utilisé (dans la société occidentale). La technique constitue désormais une matrice qui se substitue à la nature.
– Jacques Ellul in “Recherche pour une Éthique dans une société technicienne,” Morale et Enseignement, 1983, page 7
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Au Ve siècle, Benoît de Nursie écrit la charte de son ordre (les Bénédictins) : "Ora et labora" (Prie et travaille). Il instaure le ménagement (devenu #management) : les moines encadrent ouvriers-lais et machines.
Ces usines se répandent en Europe avec les monastères.
#PMO, épisode 9 : https://floraisons.blog/face-au-monde-machine/#episode-9-machines-et-monasteres @histoire
Références :
#GIMPEL Jean. La révolution industrielle du Moyen Âge. Seuil, 2002.
PIÈCES ET MAIN D’ŒUVRE. Terreur et possession. L’Échappée, 2008
#MUSSO Pierre. La Religion industrielle. Fayard, 2017
Floraisons · Face au monde-machine — avec PMO - FloraisonsUne série de podcasts avec Pièces et main d’œuvre (PMO). Plongez dans la riche aventure intellectuelle et historique de l'écologie anti-industrielle.
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"Les moyens de communication, les produits irrésistibles de l'industrie du divertissement et de l'information sont porteurs d'attitudes et d'habitudes prescrites, de certaines réactions intellectuelles et émotionnelles qui lient les consommateurs/trices aux producteurs/trices et, par l'intermédiaire de ces dernier·es, à l'ensemble du système social. Les marchandises endoctrinent et manipulent ; elles promeuvent une fausse conscience qui est immunisée contre sa fausseté… C'est ainsi qu'émerge un modèle de pensée et de comportement unidimensionnel".
Herbert Marcuse